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by Peter A. Belmont / 2010-12-14
© 2010 Peter Belmont
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Israel has built settlements (now only in the West Bank and Golan Heights) which are all both built and populated in violation of international law. What would it cost Israel to do what the law appears to require—repatriate the settlers and demolish the settlement buildings?
The costs of resettling the settlers within Israel might cost between $26 bn and $55 bn. The costs of reparations for Palestinian refugees might be about $235 bn.
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Israel now has about 550,000 Israeli settlers in territories it occupied after the 1967 war. The housing and other structures built to accommodate these settlers (collectively, the settlements) cost a great deal to build.
To abandon these settlements and demolish the buildings would appear to be a requirement of international law. Of course, this law has been quite thoroughly ignored for 43 years by Israel and by the USA.
Abandonment of these settlements, or of many or most of them, would also appear to be a requirement of a two-state Israeli/Palestinian peace. Even if the settlement buildings were not demolished—and they might be turned over to the Palestinians who might, who knows?, find use for them—the settlers would have to be housed in pre-1967 Israel.
Ignoring the costs of moving and of demolishing settlements, what would be the cost of building new housing for all these settlers? for some of them?
Assuming a cost of $100,000 per person for new housing ($400,000 for a family of four), 550,000 * $100,000 = $55,000,000,000 (that is, $55 bn).
Establishment of a two-state Israeli/Palestinian peace might not require such a high cost. First, not all settlers might be repatriated—some might be allowed to remain, especially in the so-called “neighborhoods of Jerusalem” in and near occupied East Jerusalem. Secondly, housing cheaper on a per-capita basis might be possible.
If 200,000 settlers were ultimately allowed to remain, and new housing were provided at $50,000 per person ($200,000 for a family of four), the cost of providing new housing would only be 350,000 * $75,000 = $26.25 bn.
Who would pay these vast sums? Of course, if the law were to be followed, it would fall to Israel (or the settlers themselves) to pay these costs, and so it should, for everyone knew from the start that the settlements were illegal. But the stranglehold that Israel has over USA’s politics, media, and business suggests that—if there ever is a peace to replace the current (and long established) apartheid-style one-state arrangement—the USA will be called upon to pay these costs.
And, while it is at it, the USA may also be called upon to pay for the houses and lands that Israel confiscated from Palestinians during and after the 1948 war—at least for those who became refugees living outside Israel (thus ignoring those internally displaced Israeli-Palestinians whose lands and houses were also confiscated without fair payment by Israel). The number of these external refugees has been estimated as about 4,000,000 in 2002 (see wikipedia on Palestinian_refugee (based on UNRWA numbers), and 4,700,000 in 2009
jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/refugees.html(citing UNRWA).
Again, Israel’s stranglehold on the USA may prevent reparations to the Palestinian refugees—or, alternatively, it might require it! Again, such payments should be made by Israel, which seized the lands and prevented the return of the refugees for 62 years.
If such payments were made, and by whomever made, say at $50,000 per refugee, this would amount to a significant sum—perhaps from 5 to 10 times the amount of the cost of building new housing for the returning Israeli settlers—4,700,000 * $50,000 = $235,000,000,000 ($235 bn).
These numbers are all part of the business of equitably (and legally) repairing the damage from Israel’s illegal expulsion of most of the 1948 refugees and its exclusion (refusal of readmittance) of all of them, and of its illegal program of settlement of territories occupied in 1967.
Perhaps, in a small measure, these numbers make clear some reasons why (apart from internal Israeli politics—the enormous power of the Israeli settlers to demand to remain where they are, peace or no peace—and internal USA politics—the enormous power of the Israeli settlers operating via “The Lobby” (AIPAC et al.)) peace may be a difficult matter to arrange.
These are not small amounts of money.
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