Opinions of Peter Belmont
Speaking Truth to Power
| A Modest Proposal for an End to the USA/Israel War Against Iran |
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by Peter A. Belmont / 2026-02-04
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SUMMARY
I present a “modest proposal” which aims to bring about a transition to peace in Western Asia and a return to lawful relations between Israel and its neighbors preferably without an all-out war. The proposal is for Iran to present a list of maximalist “demands” (return by USA-Israel to the requirements of international law) and “enforcement” by a gradually escalating series of small attacks (“boiling the frog”). The slow “boiling the frog” approach is intended to allow this transition to occur without requiring a war. ESSAY Background: The USA-Israel Long War (War Of Attrition) Against Iran The USA and Israel have been making war against Iran for a long while. Although this war blossomed into a “hot war” in June of 2025, it has been a “soft war” or “soft war of attrition” for far longer: conducted recently by the attack on Iran’s currency and the fomenting and arming of civil disturbances inside Iran; conducted less recently and longer, by assassinations, cyberattacks, and American economic sanctions; and conducted longer still, by attacks on Iran’s friends (some called “proxies”) such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and, always (seems forever) the Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem. Iran had avoided “hot war” for a very long time by unresistingly enduring the long “soft war”. And then “hot war” came to Iran. In June, 2025, Israel and the USA attacked Iran in direct military action and, presumably to their great surprise, were soundly defeated. In a mere 12 days, Iran persuaded the USA and Israel to end their immediate attacks. The attacks ended, as did Iran’s responses, but there was no cease-fire and no end to hostilities. The enormous recent buildup of the USA’s “armada” of warships near Iran is a clear indication that the June war continues, in the USA’s view, in preparation and threat. And on February 3, 2026, The USA retreated, moving its great aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln 700 miles farther away from Iran. This seems to have been a response to a realization that Iran was not (or was no longer) a “paper tiger”. I Read The Tea Leaves As Follows First, the USA and Israel still intend to maintain their stances as local bullies in Western Asia (a/k/a/Middle East). Israel continues to bully Lebanon, to conduct genocide (ignoring the so-called cease-fire) in Gaza, continues to build settlements and to conduct terror operations in the West Bank against the Palestinians living under oppressive military occupation as they have since June, 1967. Second, so far, Iran still dislikes the thought of massive destruction inside Iran in a large-scale hot war to the point that it has made only the small military resistance to USA and Israel that was seen in June, 2025. Third, Iran is really, really tired of the threat of military action against it by the USA or Israel—that is the threat of the resumption of the attacks of June, 2025— and has promised to make an all-out military response to any such continuation, whether it were initiated by the USA or by Israel or both, an all-out response against both USA military outposts in Western Asia and against Israel. This promise makes clear the Iranian view that, in Western Asia, Israel and the USA are a single military entity, single in policy, single in control, single in responsibility. This view is commonly entertained inside the USA as well: the influence of AIPAC and other big-money Zionists is broadly seen as determinative of USA policy in Western Asia. And it really does not matter whether Israel is the USA’s puppet or vice-versa: in effect they are one. Fourth, hinting at things to come, Iran has begun showing its military preparedness in various ways, such as by the drone (reportedly shot down) sent close to the warship Abraham Lincoln which demonstrates that Iran is not entirely quiescent as the USA’s armada lies close by and the hot war of June, 2025, continues (if mostly quietly) as a threat. Iran plans naval “exercises” with Russia and China, another sign of military readiness. There has been talk of Iran’s closing the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon of war, which closure would send world oil prices through the ceiling. A Modest Proposal For An Iranian War Of Attrition Against Israel and the USA In my view, Iran has overwhelmingly demonstrated that it can—and will—defeat both the USA’s local forces and Israel altogether if it is attacked again. That is the message of Iran’s triumph in June, 2025, and also the message of all its talk about new defensive and offensive weapons and strategies. Iran has also suggested that it cannot or will not put up with the long “soft” war of attrition forever. If Iran awakens to the importance of its new-found military preeminence, it might decide to turn the tables and initiate a war of attrition against USA-Israel as follows. First, in its on-going discussions (“negotiations”) with the USA, Iran could make a series of demands (mirroring the USA’ unacceptable demand that Iran disarm and end nuclear enrichment activities). EXAMPLE DEMANDS: • USA withdraw all forces from waters near Iran. • USA end all economic sanctions against Iran. • Israel end all military operations in and against Gaza. • Israel end all military operations in and against Hezbollah and Lebanon. • Israel withdraw all forces from Lebanon. • Israel withdraw all forces from Gaza. • Israel clear the rubble in Gaza and rebuild the structures demolished since October 7, 2023. • Israel end all occupations (Gaza, West Bank, Golan Heights) and withdraw all settlers from the West Bank according to a steady and announced schedule, such withdrawal to be completed in one year. This list could be modified or expanded, of course. Second, Iran could suggest enforcement of its demands by making a small series of (initially) harmless demonstration attacks, perhaps pre-announced, perhaps one rocket landing in Israel and another rocket landing in a USA military outpost in Western Asia. Small attacks. Not enough to excite a retaliation, which would bring on the all-out war promised by Iran in the case of a resumption by USA or Israel of the war of June, 2025. But these small demonstration attacks (which would escalate gradually as necessary, becoming less harmless) would serve to begin a war of attrition by Iran against Israel and the USA-in-Western-Asia. The purpose of this escalation would, of course, be to enforce achievement of Iran’s demands. Think of the frog in gradually heating water. The plan: The world has seen Israel and the USA back down before a small retaliatory attack by Iran in June, 2025, in which Iran was using its older (less high-tech) weapons. The world knows that Iran has been re-arming with better technology and with weapons acquired from Russia and China. The demands set forth Iran’s vision of a better Western Asia, freed from USA’s and Israel’s imperial and expansive (or regime-changing or polity-destroying) efforts. They are little different from what the old and (especially by the USA and Israel) long-ignored international law requires. The progressively more severe attacks will remind the USA and Israel that Iran can more-or-less wipe out Israel and can severely damage USA’s outposts in Western Asia if it chooses to; and will invite the USA and Israel to fold their tents and withdraw (i.e., accede to Iran’s demands) all the while showing that Iran does not desire wider (or all-out) war but is willing to chance it if the USA and Israel prefer all-out war to a retreat away from imperial designs (e.g., “Greater Israel”). The war of attrition by Iran against the USA and Israel consists of setting forth demands and then damaging the USA and Israel by attacks gradually increasing in seriousness, always allowing the USA and Israel to quit, but always allowing the USA and Israel to set fire to the region in an all-out regional war (with severe effects on world oil supply) if that is what they preferred. This program—as I imagine it—does not aim to destroy Israel. It does, however, aim at requiring Israel to withdraw into its pre-1967 territory and to behave like a good neighbor to Lebanon, Palestine, and others (e.g., Syria). Final Thoughts My estimation is that Iran is growing tired of living under the constant pressure of the USA-Israel war of attrition described above and will, if it has not already done so, decide to take action to end that war of attrition, even risking “hot war”. My “modest proposal” aims to bring about a transition to peace in the region and a return to lawful relations between Israel and its neighbors preferably without an all-out war. The slow “boiling the frog” approach is intended to allow this transition without war. I would appreciate comments from readers about this proposal. |
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