Opinions of Peter Belmont
Speaking Truth to Power
| If Attacked, Will Iran React Massively Or Minimally? |
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by Peter A. Belmont / 2026-10-20
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| Today is 10/20/2026. Topic If the USA and Israel renew their attacks on Iran, will Iran’s response be measured or total, minimal or maximal? Will it plunge the world into merely uncomfortable economic distress or into disastrous depression? Discussion It is “in the air” (10/20/2026) that the USA and Israel are contemplating renewing attacks on Iran. Iran, for its part, has promised to retaliate massively to such an attack, promising, indeed, to do great damage to the economies of the Gulf countries from which the USA military has operated against Iran and, as a consequence, to do incalculable and very long-lasting damage to the world economy. Now President Trump, as is well established, is mad, idiotic, ill-informed, ill-advised, psychopathic, and thoroughly corrupt. He has no kindly concern for—if indeed he is not actively malevolent toward—the welfare of the people of the world generally and toward the people of the USA in particular, being kindly concerned only for the wealth of his own family, the profits of the major oil companies, and the implacably imperialistic sensibilities of the Zionist Lobby and its Greater Israel fixation. It is therefore entirely believable that Trump will commence such renewed hostilities without regard or care for the economic devastation promised (by Iran) as a consequence. Bibi Netanyahu and Israel are not any better. Iran, by contrast, has proved to be cautious and relatively pacific over the years as well as recently, holding back, for example, in the current rather peaceful period, from preemptive attacks on USA’s nearby military bases and naval presence, on USA’s allies in the Gulf region, and on Israel. Moreover, Iran is allied with China, Russia, and other countries which would not wish to see the world thrown into deep depression. Faced with “existential” threat from USA and Israel, Iran has nevertheless held back from exerting “existential” threats against Israel. Therefore the question arises: will Iran—if attacked—immediately react by massively destroying (for instance) oil refineries and water desalination plants in Israel and the Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, or would it rather, as I hope, react by making smaller “demonstration” attacks, seeking to persuade the USA and Israel that it can do far worse, and if pushed will do far worse, but that it has, nevertheless. no desire to sink the world into deep depression before assessing whether the USA and Israel can be deterred by such a “demonstration”. I would say that if any country among Iran, USA, and Israel is likely to practice “tikkun olam” (taking care of and repairing the world), it is Iran. I hope that I am right. Trump and Netanyahu should hope so too. |
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