Opinions of Peter Belmont
Speaking Truth to Power
| A Modest Proposal for an End to the USA/Israel War Against Iran |
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by Peter A. Belmont / 2026-02-04
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SUMMARY
I present a “modest proposal” which aims to bring about a transition to peace in Western Asia and a return to lawful relations between Israel and its neighbors preferably without an all-out war. The proposal is for Iran to present a list of maximalist “demands” (return by USA-Israel to the requirements of international law) and “enforcement” by a gradually escalating series of small attacks against USA-Israel by Iran (“boiling the frog”). The slow “boiling the frog” approach is intended to allow this transition to occur without requiring a war. This proposal, however, requires Iran to be willing to accept some war-damage in return for victory. It requires Iran to behave a bit like the Houtis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen. Iran made public statements of goals similar to some of my suggested “demands” (see below), but more peaceably, that is, without threats or demands. See Iran’s Comprehensive Peace Proposal to the United States by Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares, Feb 9, 2026. ESSAY Background: The USA-Israel Long War (War Of Attrition) Against Iran The USA and Israel have been making war against Iran for a long while. Although this war blossomed into a “hot war” in June of 2025, it has been a “soft war” or “soft war of attrition” for far longer: conducted recently by the attack on Iran’s currency and the fomenting and arming of civil disturbances inside Iran; conducted less recently and longer by assassinations, cyberattacks, and American economic sanctions; and conducted longer still, by attacks on Iran’s friends (some called “proxies”) such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansarallah in Yemen, and always (seems forever) the Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem. Iran had avoided “hot war” for a very long time by unresistingly enduring the long “soft war”. And then “hot war” came to Iran. In June, 2025, Israel and the USA attacked Iran in direct military action and, presumably to their great surprise, were soundly defeated. In a mere 12 days, Iran persuaded the USA and Israel to end their immediate attacks. The attacks ended, as did Iran’s responses, but there was no cease-fire and no end to hostilities. The enormous recent buildup of the USA’s “armada” of warships near Iran is a clear indication that the June war continues, at least in preparation and threat, in the USA’s view. And on February 3, 2026, The USA retreated, moving its great aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln 700 miles farther away from Iran. This seems to have been a response to a realization that Iran was not (or was no longer) a “paper tiger”. On the diplomatic front, the USA has insisted on negotiations with Iran to secure Israel’s demands—namely, no more Iranian nuclear enrichment, no more Iranian support for its friends in Western Asia (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ansarallah in Yemen among them), and no more Iranian long-range missiles. Iran has labeled these demands as non-starters. That is to say, from Iran’s viewpoint, the USA’s demands (or goals) in its diplomacy are “extreme” and “unacceptable”. They are unacceptable because knuckling-under to these demands would render Iran defenseless (at least as to retaliation) before Israel’s formidable war-machine. I Read The Tea Leaves As Follows First, the USA and Israel still intend to maintain their stances as local bullies in Western Asia (a/k/a/Middle East). Israel continues to bully Lebanon, continues to conduct genocide (ignoring the so-called cease-fire) in Gaza, continues to build settlements and to conduct terror operations in the West Bank against the Palestinians living under oppressive military occupation as they have since June, 1967. The USA continues its severe economic sanctions against Iran. Second, so far, Iran still fears the possibility of massive destruction inside Iran in a large-scale hot war to the point that it has made only the small military resistance to USA and Israel that was seen in June, 2025, a small resistance but one large enough to get both the USA and Israel to back down. Third, Iran is really, really tired of the threat of military action against it by the USA and/or Israel, that is, the threat of the resumption of the attacks of June, 2025, and has promised to make an all-out military response to any such continuation, whether it were initiated by the USA or by Israel or both, an all-out response against both USA military outposts in Western Asia and against Israel. This promise—to retaliate against both the USA and Israel in the event of an attack against Iran by either— makes clear the Iranian view that, in Western Asia, Israel and the USA are a single military entity, single in policy, single in control, single in responsibility. This view is, of course, commonly entertained inside the USA as well: the influence of AIPAC and other big-money Zionists is broadly seen as determinative of USA policy in Western Asia. And it really does not matter whether Israel is the USA’s puppet or vice-versa: in effect the two are one. “Joined at the hip” as people say. “No daylight between their policies or their interests”. Fourth, hinting at things to come, Iran has begun showing its military preparedness in various ways, such as by the drone (reportedly shot down) sent close to the warship Abraham Lincoln which demonstrates that Iran is not entirely quiescent as the USA’s armada lies close by and the hot war of June, 2025, continues (if mostly quietly) as threat and peparation. Iran plans naval “exercises” with Russia and China, another sign of military readiness. There has been talk of Iran’s closing the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon of war, which closure would send world oil prices through the ceiling. A Modest Proposal For An Iranian War Of Attrition Against Israel and the USA In my view, Iran has overwhelmingly demonstrated that it can—and will—defeat both the USA’s local forces and Israel altogether if it is attacked again. That is the message of Iran’s triumph in June, 2025, and also the message of all its talk about new defensive and offensive weapons and strategies and its blossoming cooperation with Russia and China. I doubt that Iran will put up with the long “soft” war of attrition forever. Especially as Israel must be assumed to be using the time-out (interruption in the war of June 2025) to improve its defensive weapons. If Iran awakens to the importance of its new-found (and possibly temporary) military preeminence, it might decide to turn the tables and initiate a war of attrition against USA-Israel as follows. The Demands First, in its on-going discussions (“negotiations”) with the USA, Iran could make a series of demands (just as the USA is presently demanding various concessions by Iran). EXAMPLE DEMANDS: • USA to end all economic sanctions against Iran. • USA to withdraw all forces from waters near Iran. • Israel to end all military operations in and against Gaza. • Israel to end all military operations in and against Hezbollah and Lebanon. • Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. • Israel to withdraw all forces from Gaza. • Israel to clear the rubble in Gaza and rebuild the structures demolished since October 7, 2023. • Israel to end all occupations (Gaza, West Bank, Golan Heights) and withdraw all settlers from the West Bank according to a steady and announced schedule, such withdrawal to be completed in one year. Note that these demands—as I’ve set them forth anyhow—do not demand that either the USA or Israel disarm, as the current USA-Israeli negotiation demands ask of Iran. This list could be modified or expanded, of course. The Enforcement of the Demands Second, Iran could describe enforcement of its demands by describing an escalating series of attacks against the USA and Israel, beginning with harmless demonstration attacks, perhaps pre-announced, perhaps one rocket landing in Israel and another rocket landing in a USA military outpost in Western Asia. Or, perhaps, and more delicately, beginning with harmless demonstration attacks on uninhabited land at a point specified and permitted to be defended by USA or Israel. This would allow Iran to demonstrate its precision munitions and allow the USA and Israel to test their defenses without danger to people’s lives or property, showing Iran’s determination to avoid real war without doing great damage. Of course Iran would hope to destroy these targets and thus to begin the process of enforcing its demands. Iran would hope to avoid the need to carry its escalation to a second or further round. Either way, small attacks, real or mere demonstrations. Not enough to excite a retaliation, which would bring on the all-out war promised by Iran in the case of a resumption by USA or Israel of the war of June, 2025. But these small demonstration attacks (which would escalate gradually as necessary, becoming less harmless) would serve to begin a war of attrition by Iran against Israel and the USA-in-Western-Asia. The purpose of this escalation would, of course, be to enforce achievement of Iran’s demands. Think of the frog in gradually heating water, here the USA and Israel being the frog instead of Iran, as at present. The plan: The world has seen Israel and the USA back down before a small retaliatory attack by Iran in June, 2025, in which Iran was using its older (less high-tech) weapons. The world knows that Iran has been re-arming with better technology and with weapons acquired from Russia and China. The demands set forth Iran’s vision of a better Western Asia, freed from USA’s and Israel’s hegemonic and expansive (or regime-changing or polity-destroying) efforts. They are little different from what international law requires—international law long ignored and flauted by the USA and Israel. The progressively more severe attacks, if needed, will remind the USA and Israel that Iran can more-or-less wipe out Israel and can severely damage USA’s outposts in Western Asia if it chooses to; and will invite the USA and Israel to fold their tents and withdraw (i.e., accede to Iran’s demands) all the while showing that Iran does not desire wider (or all-out) war but is willing to chance it if the USA and Israel prefer all-out war to a retreat away from imperial designs (e.g., “Greater Israel”). The war of attrition by Iran against the USA and Israel consists of setting forth demands and then damaging the USA and Israel by attacks gradually increasing in seriousness, always allowing the USA and Israel to quit, but always allowing the USA and Israel to set fire to the region in an all-out regional war (with severe effects on world oil supply) if that is what they preferred. This program—as I imagine it—does not aim to destroy Israel. It does, however, aim at requiring Israel to withdraw into its pre-1967 territory and to behave like a good neighbor to Lebanon, Palestine, and others (e.g., Syria). Final Thoughts My estimation is that Iran is growing tired of living under the constant pressure of the USA-Israel war of attrition described above and will, if it has not already done so, decide to take action to end that war of attrition, even risking “hot war”. My “modest proposal” aims to bring about a transition to peace in the region and a return to lawful relations between Israel and its neighbors preferably without an all-out war. The slow “boiling the frog” approach is intended to allow this transition without war. I would appreciate comments from readers about this proposal. |
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